Market Dynamics

A Malibu Sinkhole Near Nicolas Cage’s Home Puts Coastal Risk Back on Buyers’ Minds

The City of Malibu declared a local emergency on September 8 after a section of coastline along Sea Level Drive gave way, opening a sinkhole tied to accelerated coastal erosion and a compromised seawall. The collapse — worsened by wave action from the remnants of Hurricane Marie — triggered a gas leak, prompted the evacuation of 31 nearby properties, and damaged the driveway of a beachfront home owned by actor Nicolas Cage, who purchased the property for $10.5 million in 2024 and had it under renovation at the time.

The scale is nowhere near January 2025’s Palisades fire, which damaged or destroyed nearly 8,000 structures, but brokers say the compounding effect of consecutive coastal disasters is starting to register with buyers. Agent Dan Malka told The Real Deal he expects insurance premiums on coastal properties to climb further, with some prospective buyers now considering inland alternatives to Malibu rather than absorb that cost and risk.

For sellers along Pacific Coast Highway and its side streets, the takeaway is not that Malibu has stopped selling — brokers report showings largely unaffected so far — but that buyers are increasingly asking harder questions about seawalls, flood zones, and long-term carrying costs before they write an offer.

Notable Listings

The House That Built Bel Air Returns to Market at $32.5 Million

In 1928, oilman-turned-developer Alphonzo Bell commissioned a Spanish Colonial estate at 10772 Chalon Road as he carved 1,700 acres of hillside into what would become Bel Air. Nearly a century later, that estate — known as Maison de La Reine, and once home to Queen Noor of Jordan — has returned to market for $32.5 million following a five-year restoration by owner Michael Wexler, founder of Maple Leaf Capital, who purchased the property in 2010 for $5.5 million.

The 10,600-square-foot home, designed by Bel Air master-plan architect Mark Daniels, is one of the neighborhood’s few remaining links to its founding era. A sale at or near ask would also trigger Measure ULA’s full 5.5 percent transfer tax surcharge on the roughly $10.9 million threshold — adding close to $1.8 million to the seller’s closing costs, a reminder that even the market’s most storied addresses are not exempt from the city’s mansion tax.

Market Data

Top Individual Brokers Post a “Rough Ride” Even as Firms Post Record Volume

The Real Deal’s newly published individual broker rankings tell a more sobering story than last week’s firm-level totals. The top 25 Los Angeles County brokers closed 1,433 deals worth a combined $7.8 billion in the twelve months ending July 1 — down sharply from $9.7 billion across 1,814 transactions the year before. The Williams and Williams Group, led by Beverly Hills Estates’ Rayni Williams and Branden Williams, held the No. 1 spot for a second consecutive year at close to $680 million in volume.

The contrast with last week’s brokerage-level numbers — $52.2 billion in combined volume, up $1.6 billion year-over-year — is telling. Firms are growing by adding agents and deal flow across the board, even as the volume produced by any single top-performing broker has compressed. The Real Deal’s coverage points to the same forces driving that squeeze industry-wide: buyer-seller tension, price correction, and a market that increasingly rewards hyperlocal expertise and AI-driven referrals over individual star power.

Policy

A Statewide Effort to Roll Back Measure ULA Heads Toward the November Ballot

Nearly four years after Los Angeles voters approved Measure ULA, the fight over the city’s transfer tax is escalating beyond city limits. The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association is pushing a statewide ballot initiative aimed at the November 2026 election that could repeal or sharply limit the tax, which currently adds 4 percent on sales above $5.4 million and 5.5 percent above $10.9 million within city boundaries.

The pressure comes as independent research adds weight to sellers’ long-standing complaints. A UCLA analysis estimates the tax has cut the odds of a property selling above the $5 million threshold by as much as 55 percent, even as the measure has generated a reported $1 billion-plus for the city’s affordable housing and tenant-assistance programs since taking effect. For owners and buyers transacting above $5.4 million, the tax remains fully in force for now — but a statewide referendum adds a new, higher-stakes venue to a debate that has so far played out only at the ballot box in Los Angeles.